COP 16: What a Difference a Year Makes

Posted on December 4, 2010 by Joanne Zimolzak

This is the second year that MLA has participated in the annual UN Climate Change negotiations (COP 16), and the differences between the proceedings this year and last are fairly significant.  On a superficial level, there's the location -- last year's talks were in frigid Copenhagen, while this year government representatives, NGOs, business interests and protesters have converged in sunny Cancun, Mexico.  (I understand it is quite chilly there today, so I will refrain from sharing the temperature down here, but suffice it to say that if one -- entirely hypothetically of course -- had a few extra moments in between meetings to sip a margarita on the beach, it would not be unpleasant). 

More substantively, the expectations for Copenhagen could not have been higher, with lofty goals of a worldwide, binding agreement on carbon emission reductions, funding to assist developing countries in lowering their emissions, a path forward for cap and trade initiatives in the US and elsewhere, and more.  Given that the Copenhagen proceedings ultimately fell short of these goals, expectations for this year's talks understandably were more modest.
 
Being on the ground here underscores some key differences between perception and reality.   For example, numerous media reports related to the COP 16 proceedings have focused on Japan's vocal opposition to extending the Kyoto Protocol before its requirements for cutting carbon emissions expire in 2012.  The Japanese delegation has argued that such an extension would be pointless unless the world's largest polluters also agree to accept binding targets.  Certainly many environmental activists and some governmental officials seek to prolong the treaty in the absence of another, effective post-Kyoto framework.  Yet among the delegates and representatives we met with, Japan's position was "nothing new" and hardly the major development it was represented to be in many press reports.
 
And, although talks among key constituents since Copenhagen left little reason to hope for much progress here, prospects for a limited deal following COP 16 now appear somewhat brighter, with the U.S. and China narrowing differences on a key element: how to monitor greenhouse gas emissions.  Our inside sources suggest that the Chinese have reversed their stance in part due to the fact that they believe they are making a great deal of progress, including through cutting edge technological developments, and see monitoring as a way to share this progress with the world.  Delegates and representatives were encouraged by this unexpected development, believing that an understanding on measuring emissions is an important step that could help break the long-standing deadlock on reducing pollutants that scientists say have caused global temperatures to steadily rise over recent decades.  Incidentally, the World Meteorological Organisation has released some key data during COP 16 concerning just how much temperatures have increased -- but more on that in my next post.
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Fifty-five Countries Meet Copenhagen Accord Deadline for Stating their Greenhouse Gas Cutback Goals

Posted on February 3, 2010 by Frederick R. Anderson

The Secretariat of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) says that it has received pledges from 55 countries to limit and reduce their greenhouse gas emissions by 2020.  For companies, particularly large multi-nationals with facilities around the world, the pledges are a useful indication of the first or additional requirements the companies will have to meet.

The Copenhagen Accord called for countries to submit their emissions targets to the UNFCCC by the end of January.  Fifty-five of the almost 200 countries in attendance in Copenhagen may not sound like much.  But they represent 78 percent of all global emissions from energy use.  Among industrialized countries, the commitments come from Australia, Canada, Croatia, the European Union and its member states, Japan, Kazakhstan, New Zealand, Norway, the Russian Federation, and the United States.  Commitments also came from almost two dozen developing nations, including the all-important "BASIC" group (Brazil, South Africa, India, China, and the Republic of Korea).

Many commitments, particularly those of developed countries, hinge on similar commitments being made by other countries.  They also use varying base years to establish their targets.  Consistent with President Obama's promise at Copenhagen, the United States committed to reduce emissions "in the range of" 17 percent below 2005 levels, "in conformity with anticipated US energy and climate legislation, recognizing that the final target will be reported to the Secretariat in light of enacted legislation."  The Secretariat noted that the next round of formal negotiations is scheduled for Bonn at the end of May, although several countries have indicated their wish to see a quick return to the negotiations with more meetings than the scheduled sessions.  Here are the pledges from industrialized countries and here from developing countries.
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Summary of the UNFCCC and Plans for Moving Forward

Posted on April 17, 2008 by James K. Alford

The 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) sought to launch a global climate change regime. In 2005 the well-known Kyoto Protocol, to which a large group of developed and emerging countries became signatories, laid the groundwork for a detailed system of incentives and targets for carbon emissions reductions, but the Protocol will remain in effect only through 2012. The December 2007 meeting in Bali of the Kyoto Conference of the Parties (COP) began to address a new international climate change treaty to take effect in 2013 upon the expiration of the Kyoto Protocol. Their “Bali Road Map” identified the core issues a new treaty must address: adaptation, mitigation, technology, finance, and cooperative action.  [summary]

In 1992 the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was adopted as the first step toward establishing a systematic, uniform global solution to the problem of climate change. This was followed by the Kyoto Protocol in 2005, to which a large group of developed and emerging countries became signatories. The Kyoto Protocol provided signatory countries a system of incentives and targets for carbon emissions reductions.  However, the Kyoto Protocol will remain in force only through 2012. A meeting of the Conference of the Parties (COP) in December 2007 set the groundwork for a new international climate change treaty to take effect in 2013 upon the expiration of the Kyoto Protocol. The outcome of this meeting was the “Bali Road Map,” in which the COP identified the five elemental concepts around which a new treaty will be organized: adaptation, mitigation, technology, finance, and cooperative action. 

Representatives of 180 countries met in Bali, Indonesia from December 3 through 14 of 2007 at the Conference of the Parties (COP), the annual United Nations Conference on climate change. Their goal was to set the groundwork for a new international climate change treaty to go into force and effect in 2013, upon the expiration of the Kyoto Protocol. At this meeting, the COP established a two-year process, the so-called Bali Road Map, which is designed to culminate in the enactment of a new treaty by the end of 2009, at or around the annual meeting of the UN conference on climate change in Copenhagen.

The first meetings toward a new accord were held in Bangkok between March 31 and April 4, 2008. Delegates from 162 countries met for the purpose of developing a substantive framework for the Bali Road Map. The participants contemplate work over the next two years toward an international pact that would halt the increase in global emissions within the next ten to fifteen years. The Kyoto Protocol Working Group also met to define the next phase of its work in redefining emissions reduction targets and obtaining commitments from signatory countries.

In the meetings the COP identified five elements or concepts around which the work for a new treaty would be centered; adaptation, mitigation, technology, finance and cooperative action. These will be addressed and molded into treaty provisions in three  more working sessions that will take place this year. The Kyoto Protocol Working Group then reaffirmed the use of emissions trading, the Clean Development Mechanism, and joint implementation by developed countries to meet their emissions reductions targets, and, in so doing, sent a clear signal to private businesses in those countries about the criteria to use for their investments and operations going forward.
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