The Fab 5: Defining Success in Copenhagen
With 5,000 delegates, 6,000 media and 16,000 non-governmental organizations descending upon Copenhagen for the UN Conference of the Parties on Climate Change, there is no shortage of opinion and spin on what “success” looks like. But through all the talk, 5 key elements are necessary for an agreement that will further efforts to address climate change.
1. Aggressive Emission Reduction Goals
Developed countries will need to agree upon on ambitious greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction targets. The IPCC suggests that this implies a mid-term goal for 25-40 percent GHG cuts by 2020 based on a 1990 level baseline and 80 percent by 2050. Collective action will need to be supplemented by individual national commitments such as those put forward by the United States and United Kingdom in recent days. Likewise, developing countries will need to agree to taking GHG mitigation actions that are appropriate in their national development contexts ranging from shifting to low carbon power strategies to reducing rates of deforestation. Some observers see a collective goal that recognizes the scientific view that the increase in global average temperature above pre-industrial levels should not exceed two degrees Celsius as a more politically feasible outcome than the target cuts noted above.
2. Climate Finance Commitments
Countries need to agree upon climate finance mechanisms that will provide “fast start” funds of approximately $10-$12 to developing countries from 2010 to 2012. This is viewed as a down payment of good faith towards future actions by developing countries. The architecture for longer-term, predictable funding for climate adaptation and mitigation – including forestry and technology support will also need to be put into place. However, it is less feasible for specific dollar amounts, governance regimes and sources of funding to be agreed upon in Copenhagen with respect to longer-term climate finance.
3. Accountability for Commitments
Measurable, Reportable and Verifiable (MRV) national commitments and actions agreed at Copenhagen are a lynchpin of success. If a global agreement will be more than rhetoric, there simply needs to be a standardized methodology to “trust but verify” with a view to equitable burden sharing in the transformation to a global low carbon economy. Countries need to establish common international methodologies to track and report emissions and subsequent measures to reduce emissions.
4. Signals for a Global Carbon Market
Private capital needs to see signals that a process of linking nations in post-Kyoto Protocol market-mechanism efforts that reduce emissions will continue. In order for private capital to continue the evolution of a liquid, cost-effective mitigation market begun under the Clean Development Mechanism and Emissions Trading systems, political signals of this approach must be provided in Copenhagen. This will allow the evolution of so-called flexible mechanisms towards at scale reductions in the most cost-effective manner possible.
5. Political Agreement With a View to Legal Agreement
There is broad consensus that a political agreement is the likely outcome from Copenhagen but ultimately enforcement requires a legal agreement. Towards this goal, it is anticipated the countries will politically commit to finalizing a more legally binding agreement in 2010. In the US context, this approach allows the Obama Administration to sequence working collaboratively with the Senate on a final energy and climate legislative package prior to promising what cannot be delivered at the international level.
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