Health Care Legislation > Climate Change Legislation > Copenhagen Agreement on Emission Limits
President Obama's address on health care reform to joint session of Congress, as well as the rancorous reactions by some Republicans, leads me to the following inescapable conclusion: the chances of Congress passing climate change legislation in 2009 just got a lot dimmer. The President has essentially thrown down the gauntlet and staked his reputation -- indeed perhaps even his presidency -- on succeeding in passing comprehensive health care reform. We can expect a full court press by the White House to get a bill passed and signed into law. And given the obvious level of rancor and opposition, you can expect this to be an all-out brawl. That means that few resources will be diverted from this battle to pass climate change legislation. Senate leaders have already laid the groundwork for a hiatus on climate change legislation. Environment and Public Works Chairwoman Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.) had been slated to introduce the bill after returning from the August recess. In a joint statement with Foreign Relations Chairman John Kerry (D-Mass.), she said the bill is now expected “later in September.”
The senators cited several reasons why the bill is taking longer than expected, including the battle over health care legislation, which is expected to last well into the fall. Members of the Senate Finance Committee are deeply involved in health care talks but will also share jurisdiction over the climate change bill.
“Because of Senator Kennedy’s recent passing, Senator Kerry’s August hip surgery, and the intensive work on health care legislation particularly on the Finance Committee where Senator Kerry serves, Majority Leader Reid has agreed to provide some additional time to work on the final details of our bill, and to reach out to colleagues and important stakeholders,” the senators said.
Given that President Obama has now committed himself to getting health care passed this year, and the White House signaling financial regulation reform to be next in line for Congress after that, the earliest a floor vote on climate legislation could happen is November. In the interim, it remains to be seen how much prioritization towards that vote will be provided by Obama. Thus, rather than fail, it is quite likely the Obama administration will seek to have the debate put off until 2010.
In fact, as I've been writing this post, Inside EPA reports ("Senators Offer No Firm Plan For Passing Cap-And-Trade This Year")...
Senate leaders have set no firm deadline for committees to finish work on climate change legislation, Senate Environment & Public Works Committee Chairwoman Barbara Boxer (D-CA) said September 9, a revelation that comes amid increasing talk that the chamber may be unable or unwilling to act on a controversial cap-and-trade plan before the end of the year given the host of other competing concerns vying for lawmakers’ attention, such as health care and pending foreign policy concerns.
What does this mean for the December meeting of the Conference of Parties in Copenhagen? Everyone should focus on Plan B. Without a US commitment to reducing greenhouse gas emissions, it is difficult to imagine a scenario in which India and China would agree to their own nationally appropriate GHG reduction commitments. And without China and India, a global agreement is not possible. Thus, the delegations meeting in Copenhagen should quickly consider other approaches that might make meaningful inroads into climate change. For example, a framework for negotiating mid-term emission limits within various sectors could be an outcome of this round, coupled with broad agreements aimed at reducing deforestation, reducing emission of black carbon, and carbon sequestration via conversion of crop stubble and dying trees to biochar. These techniques -- which have been discussed at length in prior postings -- would do more to reverse climate change than even the strongest emission limits could achieve. (“Why we need fast regulatory actions to complement cuts in CO2 emissions,” Durwood Zaelke, April 21, 2009). They will be needed regardless of whether emission limits are adopted. I say focus on developing Plan B.
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