How to Win China and India
Reagan-era economist Martin Feldstein weighed in on the current cap-and-trade plan under consideration in Congress with an op-ed in today's Washington Post.
I'd like to celebrate his contribution, since I noted last week how little thoughtful criticism was coming from Republicans, but unfortunately I can't. Feldstein uses dubious logic and selective inputs to argue that the Waxman Markey bill is a bad idea.
Feldstein argues that the cost of the scheme to taxpayers -- $1600 per typical household, according to a Congressional Budget Office estimate -- is too high since the impact on global warming would be "virtually unnoticeable." Instead, Feldstein argues, the United States "should wait until there is a global agreement that includes China and India."
I agree with Feldstein that climate change cannot be solved without the cooperation of China and India. But unless and until the United States takes a leadership role in battling climate change, those two countries are not going to play ball.
China has repeatedly stated its view that the industrialized nations are the ones who bear primary responsibility for the buildup of CO in the atmosphere that has occurred over the last 100 years and that therefore the industrialized nations should be the ones to assume responsibility for fixing the problem. China is unlikely to change its position until the United States shows leadership on the issue. And the United States cannot credibly take a leadership role unless and until it puts itself on a low-carbon diet.
The costs of delaying action until China and India come to the table are not included in Feldstein's cost-benefit analysis. He'd have a hard time calculating them, because they are virtually incalculable. A new report by the Global Humanitarian Forum argues the world is in the throes of a "silent crisis" in which global warming is killing 300,000 people each year, a figure that is predicted to double by 2030.
Politicians will meet in Copenhagen in December to negotiate a successor treaty to Kyoto. Let's hope that Congress looks beyond the cost-benefit predictions favored by Feldstein and sees the bigger picture: bold action by our Congress on climate change will give US negotiators the credibility they need to convince recalcitrant countries like China and India to join the battle against climate change.
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