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The focus of speculation is, as it has been for months, the House Energy and Commerce committee, where members have been wrangling over the details of the Waxman-Markey discussion draft introduced this March.

Soon after, House leaders all held hands and said they thought it could get done this year. Then in late April, we heard leaders suggest that the focus was shifting to health care legislation, and that cap-and-trade would get shelved. (The leaders indicated they might push ahead with one piece of the bill: a federal Renewable Electricity Standard that is arguably a more potent short-term solution. That is looking increasingly palatable politically as well as a new wind industry poll indicates that 75 percent of votes support it.)

Now, according to Carbon Control News, a deal to advance the Waxman-Markey discussion draft is being worked out under which utilities would receive emission allowances free (rather than having to purchase them at auction).

We cannot assess the strength of this latest rumor, but it has always been our view that 2010, rather than 2009, was the year to circle on your calendar.

Despite energetic efforts by groups such as Al Gore's Alliance for Climate Protection -- whose director (Cathy Zoi) was tapped to lead energy efficiency and renewable energy programs at DOE -- nothing we have heard has caused us to change our view on this.